Why weather matters more in NFL betting than UK sports
Why public money chases Overs, how psychology skews betting markets, and why sharp bettors often find value backing the Under in NFL and soccer.
If you are an NFL fan in the UK, you already know how wild game day can get when you are running a handful of bet builders.
The importance of tracking your bets I’ve been working in the sports betting industry for a long time now. I’ve worked for an operator, an affiliate and now as a freelancer. I’ve worked both as a marketeer creating campaigns based around US sports and tennis, been involved with social media, helped build websites from the ground up, commissioned content, and now, create the content myself. With my experience in the industry I often get messaged on LinkedIn, via email or in my DMs on Twitter, to discuss roles or promote various new products. Filtering the Signal from the Noise There’s a lot of charlatans in this business but I refuse to promote anything that I don’t think is a good product, and isn’t something that I’d use myself. Which is why, in my first call with the Stacked guys, I was instantly interested in taking it for a spin. I’ve learned a lot in betting but the number one most important thing that I’ve realised is how essential bet tracking is. I don’t mean that as an analyst, who gives out tips. I mean that as a punter. The Reality of Wins vs. Losses Winning bets is a great feeling, whether that’s putting a single on something you’re certain will happen in the game, or whacking on an acca across multiple matches, we all remember the big wins. What we don’t often remember are the losses, the narrow defeats, or the times we fail to win a single leg of a Bet Builder. The Analytics Revolution in Sports If you’re reading this then I know you’re a huge sports fan, so let’s put this in that context. What is the single biggest driver in improved sporting performance over the past fifty years, across every single sport? An understanding of nutrition has really helped, as have leaps forward in technology, but the area which has improved performance most has been the advancement of analytics. By having evidence about areas of strengths and weaknesses, it’s allowed athletes to work upon them, and best use their attributes to succeed. Applying Data Science to Your Betting Strategy Sports betting is no different. What bets are you winning on? Do you have a better hit rate when you back player props or bet against the spread? When you’re betting player props are you more efficient at betting on receiving lines or rushing lines? When you bet on your own team does your knowledge help you win more than you lose, or does your passion cause you to be too optimistic and lose bets? You simply can’t be successful in the long term as a bettor without understanding what you’re good at, and what you’re bad at. Likewise, if you follow a tipster, or just copy your mate’s bets, then it’s good to know which areas they excel in too. The Old Way: The Spreadsheet Grind Years ago I found an excel spreadsheet online. I customised it to include every bet type I ever bet on, every sportsbook I bet with, every major sport and every league I ever bet on. I have spent countless hours adding various bets into this spreadsheet, so many that it takes an absolute age to load. The knowledge of my strengths and my weaknesses has been hugely informative. I know I’m profitable on League One, Anytime Touchdown bets in the 5/1 or above range but poor at both teams to score four-folds, and betting on tennis. Smarter, Safer Betting with Stacked So imagine how impressed I was when I was on that call with the Stacked team and I realised how easily the app can help me track bets. We also spoke of how importantly we value responsible gambling, something that I’ve really focused on in my career. Betting on the NFL or on football is great fun, but it’s imperative that you are aware of the dangers. Upon trying Stacked in beta form, I knew the app could help with that. You can easily view all your bets, across multiple bookies, and realise what you’re best at betting on. More importantly, you can work out what you’re not good at betting on. It’s one of the few innovations in the sports betting space in recent years that I genuinely think encourages smart sports betting. Innovation That Actually Works There are other things that impressed me of course, tracking bets in-play is useful, especially if you’re on with multiple books and don’t want to switch app every two minutes to check. I was also genuinely shocked at how well the AI on the Stacked app read my screenshots and uploaded them, which will save hours of manually typing stuff in if you’re a spreadsheet user like myself. I fundamentally believe that tracking bets is the best thing you can do as a regular punter. Whether that’s because you are a frequent bettor who wants to win in the long term, or a more casual player who just wants to see how you do every weekend. The Future of Smart Tracking As you might have realised already, I’m going to be working with Stacked going forward. I was hugely impressed by their mission statement and most importantly, the app itself, especially given the improvements and extra features that I know are coming in the future. Over the next weeks and months I’m going to be guiding you through ways to be smarter with your betting, particularly through the lens of the NFL, a sport I fell in love with when I was at uni, but more on that another day.
The Ultimate Guide to the Thanksgiving Opener for UK NFL Fans
How to bring together all your NFL bets into one app....
